SPX,
+0.32%<\/a>
tumbled into bear territory<\/a> at the start of this week. And then will come a bull market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Per history, B. of A. Global Investment Strategy\u2019s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, points out, the average peak-to-trough bear-market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern would put the end of the pain on Oct. 19, 2022, which happens to mark the 35th anniversary of Black Monday, as the stock-market crash of 1987 is widely known, with, again according to statistical averages, the S&P 500 likely bottoming at 3,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A popular definition of a bear market defines it as a 20% drop from a recent high. As of Thursday, the index was off 23.55% from its record close of 4,796.56 on Monday, Jan. 3, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And an end typically marks a new beginning, with Bank of America noting the average bull market lasts a much longer 64 months with a 198% return, \u201cso next bull sees the S&P 500 at 6,000 by Feb. 28,\u201d said Hartnett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, another week saw the bank\u2019s own bull-and-bear indicator (below) fall as far as it can into \u201ccontrarian bullish\u201d territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That indicator previously fell to 0 in August 2002, July 2008, September 2011, September 2015, January 2016 and March 2020, observed Hartnett. When it has previously zeroed out, except in the case of a double-dip recession such as 2002 or in the event of systemic events, as in 2008 and 2011, three-month returns have been strong, as the table below shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPositioning dire, but profits\/policy say nibble at [an S&P 500 level of 3,600], bite at [3,300], gorge at [3,000],\u201d added Hartnett. That\u2019s even as B. of A. clearly doesn\u2019t think the selloff is over. The chart below presents a reminder from B. of A. that the Federal Reserve tends to \u201cbreak something\u201d in its tightening cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n More data from the bank showed $16.6 billion flowed into stocks in the most recent week, $18.5 billion from bonds and $50.1 billion from cash. Also, the data showed the first week of inflows to emerging-market equities in the past six weeks, at $1.3 billion; the biggest inflow to U.S. small-cap stocks since December 2021, at $6.6 billion; the largest influx to U.S. value stocks in 13 weeks, at $5.8 billion; and biggest flow toward tech in nine weeks, at $800 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" When it comes to bear markets, investors can take comfort from history, which suggests that where there\u2019s a beginning, there\u2019s<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[254,3421,3422],"tags":[3443,3442,888,3425],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8377"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8377"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8378,"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8377\/revisions\/8378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.jlbn.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n