Here’s the Worst-Case Scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) in 10 Years, According to Macro Guru Raoul Pal
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says that Bitcoin (BTC) can still erupt en route to outperforming other asset classes in the next 10 years even in his worst-case scenario.
In a recent roundtable discussion on the Scott Melker YouTube channel, the former Goldman Sachs executive explains how the more extreme an asset’s inherent volatility (VOL) is, the higher it could potentially multiply in price compared to less risky investments.
“Volatility gives the reward. Because it’s a 70-vol asset, it gives these 20x, 50, 100x [rewards] depending what time period you’re looking at.
People just are not set up for that because they are mean-reversionists. They think the world is cyclical and everything reverts back to where it was, so therefore, every boom has a bust, and every bust brings it back to where it started.
But that’s not what happens here. It’s in an exponential trend, so every bust is significantly higher. I mean Bitcoin $4,000, Bitcoin $20,000. That’s low to low, that’s extraordinary. But people don’t see that. They’re not used to it. They don’t know how to deal with it. People are having to learn. All of us did.”
Pal goes on to recount his observations of being an early Bitcoin investor when the asset was still valued well below $1,000, noting that he believes BTC will ultimately be worth $100,000 at a minimum and could even go as high as a million dollars.
“I never realized how in an exponential trend, buying and holding and adding into the big sell-offs is better. I went back and looked at all the times I traded Bitcoin from 2013 when I first got in at $200.
I rode it up $1,000, so it went up 5x in two months, then went all the way back down 85%. I just held it because I wanted to treat it like an option. I had a 10-year view.
I said it’s probably going to $100,000 worst case, $1 million best case over the next 10 to 20 years.”
Pal concludes by making mention of his other crypto investments, including leading smart contract Ethereum (ETH) and the competing layer-1 protocol Solana (SOL).
“I have a few different tokens. My main bets are Ethereum and Solana, but I have no idea whether Solana is going to be something or not. I think it probably is because the network adoption seems to be as high as anything else, but the world can change fast.
Outside of that, I have a basket of equally weighted stuff because I assume I’m an idiot and don’t know how to choose the right things. That’s why I set up a fund of hedge funds, because I’d rather give my money to a bunch of people whose job is to go and find what is the next 100x or 1000x than try and do it myself because it’s complicated…
Just a small basket of stuff just keep my eye on it all, see what’s moving, see how it works.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin has stabilized from the correction that began back on August 18th, currently down less than a percent and trading for $21,330.